Colts in the AFC South Race: Week 12 Overreactions
NFL Week 12 brought its usual share of drama and knee-jerk reactions, and for Indianapolis Colts fans, the weekend ended with a bewildering loss that tightened the AFC South race. While experts dissect every game, we’re diving into the biggest overreactions, especially how they impact our Colts and their playoff aspirations moving forward.
AFC South Heats Up: Colts’ Stumble, Texans’ Surge
Indianapolis’ Week 12 Heartbreak
The Colts began Week 12 showing incredible promise, holding a 20-9 fourth-quarter lead against the Chiefs. However, their offense completely shut down, giving away the game in overtime. This bewildering loss dropped Indianapolis to 8-3, a setback that suddenly makes the division race far more interesting.
Texans Closing In
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans pulled off an impressive win against the Bills on Thursday night, improving to 6-5. This was their third consecutive win with backup quarterback Davis Mills under center while C.J. Stroud was in concussion protocol. Their defense, described as championship-caliber, sacked Josh Allen eight times, showcasing their potential.
Upcoming Showdowns Are Key
The crucial detail for local fans is that the Texans and Colts have not yet played each other. They are set to face off next Sunday in Week 13 and again in Week 18. With C.J. Stroud expected to return for the Week 13 matchup in Indianapolis, the Texans suddenly present a very real threat. The verdict is clear: it’s NOT an overreaction to think the Texans could overtake the Colts and win the AFC South. If Houston manages to win their remaining games, including both against Indianapolis, they could secure the division title via tiebreaker. The Jaguars also loom as a contender, but the spotlight is firmly on these two teams.
| Team | Current Record | Key Matchups Remaining | AFC South Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 8-3 | vs. Texans (Week 13), at Texans (Week 18) | Lost momentum in Week 12, crucial divisional games ahead to maintain lead. |
| Houston Texans | 6-5 | at Colts (Week 13), vs. Colts (Week 18), vs. Jaguars | Surging with backup QB, Stroud returning, strong defense makes them a serious threat. |
Vikings’ QB Woes: J.J. McCarthy’s Struggles Continue
The Minnesota Vikings made a big investment in quarterback J.J. McCarthy, but Week 12 saw him deliver another horrendous performance in a 23-6 loss to the Packers. Completing just 12 of 19 passes for 87 yards and two interceptions, McCarthy’s stat lines are drawing comparisons to early career Justin Fields. Despite offensive line issues and McCarthy’s youth, the team is 4-7, a stark contrast to their 14-3 record last season. The verdict is NOT an overreaction: the Vikings will likely seek a veteran quarterback to add to their QB room in 2026, or even a new starter, if McCarthy doesn’t show significant improvement by season’s end.
Are the Bears Playoff Contenders with Caleb Williams?
Caleb Williams led the Chicago Bears to a 31-28 victory over the Steelers, continuing their impressive run of four straight wins and eight of their last nine, placing them at 8-3 and first in the NFC North. Williams threw for 239 yards and three touchdowns, demonstrating poise. However, the verdict here is an OVERREACTION. While Chicago is ahead of schedule, their playoff spot isn’t guaranteed with the Packers and Lions hot on their heels and tough matchups remaining against both divisional rivals and the defending champion Eagles. Plus, Williams, while talented, is still prone to critical mistakes, like a strip-sack in the end zone against the Steelers. This young team still has ups and downs ahead.
Bengals’ Playoff Dreams Fading
Despite Joe Burrow’s surprisingly early return to full practice status, offering a glimmer of hope, the Bengals’ season is likely over. Their 26-20 loss to the Patriots marked their fourth consecutive defeat, dropping them to 3-8. While Burrow’s return could provide a boost, the team would need to win out just to finish above .500. The crucial blow to their season came in Weeks 8 and 9, blowing a two-touchdown lead against the Jets and giving up a winning touchdown to the Bears in the final minute. The verdict is NOT an overreaction. The Bengals’ atrocious defense, not the offense (even with Joe Flacco), has been their undoing, and Burrow’s return won’t fix that fundamental issue.
Shedeur Sanders’ Promising Debut for the Browns
Cleveland’s popular fifth-round pick, Shedeur Sanders, made his highly anticipated first NFL start, leading the Browns to a 24-10 victory over the Raiders. Sanders was 11-for-20 for 209 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He showed poise, avoiding sacks from Maxx Crosby, and demonstrated his playmaking ability with a beautiful deep pass and a 66-yard screen touchdown. The verdict is NOT an overreaction: the Browns should continue starting Sanders for the remainder of the season. With two first-round picks in the 2026 draft, they need to evaluate their quarterback options fully, and Sanders offers both fan excitement and a chance to figure out their long-term solution.
Quick-Hitter Fantasy Overreactions
- Emanuel Wilson is a must-roster running back.
NOT AN OVERREACTION. Even with Josh Jacobs potentially returning, Wilson showed RB1 potential as a starter. He’s a valuable lottery ticket or trade bait, especially for Jacobs owners. - Kenneth Gainwell is passing Jaylen Warren on the Steelers’ RB depth chart.
OVERREACTION. While Gainwell had a strong Week 12, Warren still commanded nearly twice as many carries and remains Pittsburgh’s primary back. Hold Gainwell, but don’t expect him to be the featured back. - Lamar Jackson isn’t a QB1 in fantasy right now.
NOT AN OVERREACTION. While always a start in case of a huge game, Jackson’s recent fantasy production has been underwhelming, with low rushing yards and few touchdowns. The Ravens are leaning on Derrick Henry, limiting Jackson’s ceiling. - Wan’Dale Robinson is a must-start WR the rest of the season.
NOT AN OVERREACTION. With Malik Nabers out, Robinson has become a target hog, catching nine passes for 156 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. Expect continued production, especially with Giants QBs enjoying throwing to him. - Kareem Hunt is the Chiefs’ RB to have even when Isiah Pacheco returns.
OVERREACTION. The Chiefs’ backfield is notoriously touchdown-dependent. As one expert put it, “If you’re starting a Chiefs running back, you’d better be hoping for a touchdown.” It’s a risky proposition regardless of who is active.
For Colts fans, Week 12 was a wake-up call, emphasizing that the road to the AFC South title and a strong playoff seed now clearly runs through the upcoming matchups with the surging Houston Texans. Prepare for a thrilling divisional battle!
AFC South Heats Up Colts Stumble Texans Surge
