Holiday Spending Outlook: Small Businesses, Gas Prices, and Black Friday in Indiana

As the holiday season approaches, Indianapolis residents are eyeing everything from gas prices for Thanksgiving travel to the best Black Friday deals. This year, small businesses are set to play a significant role in holiday gifting, while a mixed economic forecast suggests both stability and changes for shoppers and farmers across Indiana.

Small Businesses Shine Bright This Holiday Season

New research indicates that nearly half of all seasonal gifts, specifically 44%, are purchased from small businesses. This trend is particularly strong among Gen X and Millennials, who prefer to shop at small businesses twice as often compared to large big-box stores during the festive period. This highlights the significant impact local entrepreneurs have on holiday shopping, especially as Small Business Saturday approaches.

Black Friday Deals: A More Selective Approach?

While Black Friday is synonymous with aggressive discounts, retailers might be more selective with their deals this year. Business owners report that sharply higher U.S. tariffs on imports are increasing their operational costs, leaving less room for deep, across-the-board sales. Shoppers can still expect deals, but they may be more targeted than in previous years.

What to Expect for Your Wallet and Farm in Indiana

Thanksgiving Travel & Gas Prices

Good news for Hoosiers planning to travel for Thanksgiving: gas prices are expected to remain stable or even see a slight downward slide. An abundance of crude oil has kept prices steady through November. The current average price in central Indiana is $0.301 per gallon, which is a welcome 3 cents lower than last Thanksgiving’s average, according to AAA.

Indiana’s Record-Breaking Harvest

American farmers, including those in Indiana, have produced a record-setting harvest this year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a corn crop of 16.75 billion bushels, the largest ever produced by U.S. farmers. While slightly down from a previous estimate, it remains a monumental achievement. Soybean yields also maintained a record-large outlook for 2025/26, although China’s promised purchases have yet to materialize.

Federal Economic Reports Are Back

Following a government shutdown, federal economic reports are set to resume this week. Among the highly anticipated indicators for businesses and consumers are the delayed employment figures for September and October, as well as existing home sales data. These reports will provide crucial insights into the broader economic landscape.

Holiday Shopping Preferences at a Glance

Frequently Asked Questions About the Holiday Economy

• Will gas prices change for Thanksgiving in Indiana?
  No, gas prices in central Indiana are expected to hold steady or even slightly decrease, averaging around $0.301/gallon, which is lower than last year.
• Why might Black Friday discounts be less aggressive this year?
  Higher U.S. tariffs on imports have increased business costs for retailers, leading them to be more selective with their Black Friday discounts.
• How important are small businesses for holiday shopping?
  Small businesses are crucial, with nearly half (44%) of seasonal gifts purchased from them. Gen X and Millennials show a strong preference, shopping at small businesses twice as often as big box stores.
• What major economic reports are resuming this week?
  Key federal economic reports resuming include the September and October employment figures, and existing home sales data, providing updates after a government shutdown.

Whether you’re hitting the road for Thanksgiving, hunting for deals, or supporting local entrepreneurs, staying informed on these economic trends can help you navigate the holiday season in Indiana more effectively.

Small Businesses Lead Holiday Gifting